Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates, ripple effects could impact food prices, production and fertilizers – AgFax


Robyn Dixon, Paul Sonne and Ellen Nakashima reported on the front page of Tuesday’s Washington Post that “Russia’s President Vladimir Poutine on Monday recognized the independence of two Moscow-backed separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and ordered Russian forces to enter their territory for “peacekeeping” purposes, a dramatic escalation in a crisis that threatens full-scale war.”

Reuters writers Naveen Thukral and Gavin Maguire reported on Tuesday that “escalating tensions between global cultural heavyweights Russia and Ukraine are likely to force wheat, maize and buyers of sunflower oil look for alternative shipments, drive up global food prices already close to multi-year highs, analysts and traders said.

The Reuters article pointed out that “with the two countries representing about 29% of the world wheat exports, 19% of the world But and 80% of world sunflower oil exports, traders feared that any military involvement could have an impact on the movement of cultures and trigger a mass scramble by importers to replace supplies from the Black Sea region.

Thukral and Maguire added that, “About 70% of wheat exports from Russia went to buyers in the Middle East and Africa in 2021according to Refinitiv shipping data.

“A lack of supply from the Black Sea region could increase demand for the baking ingredient of the United States and Canada“, said the Reuters article.

Associated Press editor Isabel Debre reported over the weekend that “American wheat growers will increase production and prevent supply chain issues in the event that a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine will stifle agricultural exports from the world’s grain powerhouse, US Secretary of Agriculture said Saturday.

“During a trade mission to the United Arab Emirates, the United States Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack told The Associated Press that a conflict in Ukraine would present a ‘opportunityof course, for us intervene and help our partnershelp them through a difficult time and situation.

Meanwhile, Patricia Cohen and Jack Ewing reported in Tuesday’s New York Times that “Ukraine, long known as the ‘breadbasket of Europe’, actually sends over 40% of its wheat exports and corn to the Middle East or Africa, where fears that further food shortages and price hikes could fuel social unrest.

Lebanonfor example, which is experiencing one of the most devastating economic crises in more than a century, gets more than half of its wheat from Ukrainewhich is also the world’s largest exporter of seed oils such as sunflower and rapeseed.

And Bloomberg writers Anna Shiryaevskaya, Mark Burton and Megan Durisin reported on Tuesday that,

So far cargo is still flowing freely and there are no indications of major disruptions.

“But if that happens, global markets already struggling with dwindling grain stocks could experience further shortages.

Russia is also one of the world’s largest exporters of the three main fertilizer groups.. Any interruption in supply may result in ascend in already high nutrient prices, affecting crop yields and causing further food inflation. »


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