Russia Invades Ukraine – Supply Disruption Affects Fuel Wheat, Fertilizer Prices – AgFax


Michael Birnbaum, Mary Ilyushina, Paul Sonne and Isabelle Khurshudyan reported on the front page of Thursday’s Washington Post that “Russia launched an attack on towns and military installations across Ukraine on Thursdayforcing thousands of civilians to flee, as Ukraine’s president called on his country to fight in the streets and NATO leaders said Europe’s security had been fundamentally impaired.”

Also on Thursday, Financial Times editors Emiko Terazono, Judith Evans and Hudson Lockett reported that “global food prices are ready to fly even further after the Russian attack on Ukraine supply chains under threatdriving up commodity markets that had already reached multi-year highs.

“Russia and Ukraine together represent the third of the world wheat exportsa fifth of his maize trade and nearly 80% of sunflower oil production, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

The attack resulted in the banning of all commercial vessels in the Inland Sea of ​​Azov – which connects to the Black Sea – and the closure of Ukrainian ports. Some 90% of Ukraine’s grain exports are transported by sea and the disruption is expected to wreak havoc on food supply flows, analysts said.

FT editors explained that “wheat price increased more than a fifth since the beginning of the year 10 year highswhile corn price to have increased by 15 percent.

“The disruption of supplies and the rush to find alternative sources of grain will hit the supply chains already struggling with strong demand and rising prices due to poor harvests in major exporting countries like Canada.

“For Chinaon a third of its maize imports come from Ukraine and are used to feed the largest herd of pigs in the world,” the FT article said.

Reuters editors Polina Devitt, Gleb Stolyarov and Natalia Zinets reported on Thursday that “the Ukrainian army has commercial shipping suspended in its ports after the invasion of the country by Russian forces, said an adviser to the chief of staff of the Ukrainian president, fanning fear of a supply disruption major exporters of grains and oilseeds.

“Russia earlier ordered the Sea of ​​Azov closed to commercial vessel traffic until further notice, but kept Russian ports in the Black Sea open to navigationits officials and five grain industry sources said Thursday.

Bloomberg editors Thomas Biesheuvel, Isis Almeida and Salma El Wardany reported on Thursday that “commodity exports from Ukraine, one of the world’s largest grain suppliers, have been thrown into chaos after the Russian invasion forced ports and railways to start closing.

Traders could no longer book ships to transport goods in and out of ports around the country, people familiar with the matter said. However, some ships already in ports were still being loaded as of Thursday evening local time and expected to leave, one person said. One of the greatest rail users said the government suspended operations.

Meanwhile, regarding potential sanctions on Russia, New York Times writer Ana Swanson reported on Thursday that “It remains to be seen whether other countries will impose limits on agricultural trade. But White House officials said their efforts were aimed at penalizing Russia’s leadership, military and industrial production, rather than Russia’s population. They prepared a new set of sanctions and export controls that would cut off Russia’s access to advanced technologies, such as semiconductors and aircraft parts.

The Times article said that “Rabobank analysts said in a note last Friday that two-thirds of Russian wheat and barley for the season had already been exportedbut this if sanctions ended up withdrawing the rest of the harvest from foreign markets which could push world prices up by almost a third.

The effects on world grain prices will depend in part on what China decides to do, analysts said. China imports massive quantities of corn, barley and sorghum for animal feed from world markets. She could choose to buy these products, as well as the wheat, from Russia instead of other countries. In such a situation, the impact of sanctions on world grain markets would be relatively small, they said.

Regarding fertilizer prices, Rhiannon Branch reported Thursday in Brownfield that “the global fertilizer market is reacting to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a long way.

“’It was intense.’

Josh Linvilledirector of fertilizers for StoneX tells Brownfield Russia is a major exporter of nitrogen, potassium and phosphorus fertilizers and, because of this, “out of the falls we have seen global urea prices increase by more than $200 per tonne overnight. US NOLA prices are up to $150-$200 per ton. The price of urea at jumped from 32% to 33% in less than 12 hours.’

“He says global supply and demand has not yet changed as a result of the attack, so right now the market is running on fear.”

And Bloomberg’s Mike Dorning reported on Thursday that “the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack warned fertilizer companies and other agricultural suppliers against taking “unfair advantage” from the conflict in Ukraine and said his department would monitor unjustified price increases. »


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