Most fertilizer wholesale prices are stable in the short term

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In the GA, cash sales were last made between $ 245 and $ 250 FOB, compared to $ 230 to $ 245 at the end of April. Many market players no longer expect an Indian call for tenders for urea before the IFA conference on June 17-20; however, given an early monsoon, it still seems reasonable for the government to announce an earlier date for the full July shipment.

Egyptian sales were between $ 242 and $ 253 FOB at the end of May, compared to $ 236 to $ 238 in April. Traders cover some shorts with small volumes but also go long before European purchases.

The European market for next season, however, continues to fail to start with buyers skeptical that the summer trough is already behind us. While there have been a number of sales for July, metric tonnes have mostly passed through the hands of traders and will therefore still need to be accepted by buyers in the field.

The near-term outlook for urea prices is stable as slow seasonal demand is offset by reduced Chinese exports.

National:

Barge prices in New Orleans, Louisiana (NOLA) fell through most of May, trading as low as $ 199 / t FOB, due to a late start to the season. application and a growing supply of imports. However, by the end of the month applications were starting for a variety of crops and the supply quickly tightened. During the last week of the month, barge prices traded up to $ 225 to $ 245.

Meanwhile, river terminal prices have remained relatively stable around $ 260 to $ 270 / t FOB. The NOLA rally brought the terminal values ​​back to more normal historical spreads.

Logistics was a focal point in May, with the shortage of trucks / drivers making it difficult to meet demand. The shortened pre-plant window, train delays, high water levels on the river system, and the ELD (Electronic Logging Device) mandate all exacerbate the problem. This is a common problem for the domestic fertilizer industry, but many believe this has been an exceptionally bad year.

The domestic nitrogen producer CF has turned to the export market as the Latin American season warms. It is estimated that around 115,000 mt has been sold for shipment in June so far.

The near-term outlook is stable to weak as spring demand declines.

UAN

UAN prices are slightly lower than last month due to lower nitrogen prices. Warehouse and farm level activity now resumes with the harvest in the ground. Shipments are emerging in force and some supply tension has been reported in areas of the central Corn Belt. CF terminals, however, are always in good supply. With urea appearing low and suppliers eager to release tons of it, there is likely to be no price increase.

River terminal prices are generally between $ 200 and $ 215 / t, down about $ 5 to $ 10 from the end of April.

Barge prices at NOLA are $ 165- $ 172 / t FOB, up from $ 180 last month. Barge demand has been slow, with any supply to NOLA now likely to arrive in time for the spring.

The near-term outlook for UAN prices is generally stable with some seasonal softness likely later in the month.

PHOSPHATES

International:

Global phosphate prices largely stalled in May with continued demand from most key markets as well as careful management by producers not to tip the market into oversupply.

New sales in India slowed with the weakening of the Indian rupee, which is down about 4% against the dollar from last month. DAP prices held between $ 427 and $ 432 / t CFR.

Seeing a strong spring season nationwide and sustained demand from Brazil, Mosaic was able to lower export prices from $ 406 to $ 411 / t FOB US Gulf from $ 400 to $ 410 at the end of April.

The price outlook is stable in the short term but more uncertain in the medium term as new productions should come online in Morocco in the coming months. This can tip the balance between supply and demand if demand in key countries does not increase to match.

National:

Barge prices edged down towards the end of May as rapid demand for the spring season waned. DAP barges are trading between $ 378 and $ 383 / t FOB NOLA in the last week of the month, compared to $ 377 to $ 390 at the end of April. MAP barges posted declines of around $ 4 to $ 375 to $ 380.

Mosaic announced summer fill values ​​of $ 385 / t FOB for DAP and MAP. This announcement came about a month earlier than usual and didn’t show much of a price reset as summer approached. Usually, producers will encourage buyers to buy products when demand is slow by reducing prices. Buyer response to this program has so far been limited, with many industry players still focusing on meeting nitrogen requirements for post-planting applications.

Driven by a tight supply, DAP prices at the river terminal rose $ 5 to $ 10 from last month to around $ 420 at $ 425 / t FOB. MAP prices have increased thanks to DAP, but remain at a $ 5-10 discount due to a relatively better deal.

The DAP price outlook is stable in the short term.

Producers appear to be comfortable with stocks after a strong spring season. Imports this summer are also likely to be limited, with phosphate prices in the United States slightly lower than around the world.

POTASH

Domestic potash prices strengthened in May due to better-than-expected spring demand and tighter supply. Barges traded between $ 240 and $ 245 / t FOB NOLA in the last week of the month, up slightly from $ 237 to $ 240 at the end of April.

Terminal prices are generally up around $ 5 from last month at $ 270 to $ 275 / t, with some suppliers pushing for $ 280 / t FOB. The carryover into the summer should be minimal.

Growers have yet to make refill offers for the summer, as they will likely wait until buyers show more interest in late June or early July. Market expectations are that fill values ​​will be announced at current prices, followed by a price increase expected at a later date.

The outlook for potash prices is stable in the near term. Inventory channels will likely be depleted following a strong spring application, resulting in high demand for refilling this summer. Pellet supply from producer K + S in Canada is now not expected until the end of the year (at the earliest), and with potash prices in the United States slightly below those of the world, the overseas imports will likely be limited this summer.

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Editor’s Note: This information was provided courtesy of Fertecon, Informa Agribusiness Intelligence.

(BAS / AG)


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